Domestic Freight Market Update

PNG Worldwide is closely monitoring major changes in the North American freight market as truckload capacity tightens across the United States and Canada. Rising diesel prices, new CDL enforcement, seasonal shipping demand, and shifting intermodal economics are beginning to reset transportation rates and carrier availability.

After a long period of soft conditions in trucking, the market is turning. Shippers are now seeing early signs of tighter truckload capacity, higher freight rates, and more pressure on routing guides. For companies that depend on truckload, drayage, intermodal, or cross-border transportation, this is a market shift that deserves immediate attention.

Truckload Capacity in the U.S. Is Tightening

A major development in the United States is the advancement of the proposed legislation known as Dalilah’s Law, which could significantly affect the truckload and drayage sectors if enacted. The bill would tighten eligibility standards for commercial driver’s licenses and accele This legislative change comes at a time when the North American freight market is grappling with fluctuations in truckload capacity and freight rates. As the trucking industry updates its practices, the intermodal shipping and drayage market may experience considerable impacts, particularly in light of rising diesel prices. Additionally, cross-border freight operations could face new challenges due to the FMCSA CDL enforcement measures.

This comes on top of recent FMCSA enforcement related to non-domiciled CDLs, which has already raised concerns about long-term driver availability. Whether these changes take full effect immediately or more gradually, the impact is clear: regulatory enforcement is becoming a real factor in truck capacity planning.

For shippers, that means one thing, available trucking capacity may become harder to secure, especially in already-tight lanes and time-sensitive freight markets.

Freight Rates Are Moving Higher

Truckload pricing is already responding. Spot market rates have risen materially from year-ago levels, and tender rejection rates have increased well above the levels that defined the softer freight environment of 2023 and 2024.

When tender rejections rise, carriers gain leverage. In practical terms, this means more contracted loads are being turned down in favor of stronger-rated freight elsewhere. Shippers that have relied on loose market conditions may now start to feel the pressure through higher rates, reduced carrier responsiveness, and less flexibility on short-notice shipments.

This shift is especially important for companies moving domestic freight across the Midwest, Southeast, Texas, and major port markets.

Diesel Prices Are Adding More Transportation Cost Pressure

Fuel is adding another layer of stress to the freight market. Higher diesel prices increase operating costs for carriers across the board, but the impact is especially severe for owner-operators and small fleets operating in the spot market.

In contract freight, these costs are passed through in the form of higher fuel surcharges. In spot freight, weaker carriers may not be able to recover the added cost at all, which can force some capacity out of the market.

For shippers, the result is straightforward: higher freight spend, more volatility, and greater pressure to reassess budgets and mode selection.

Seasonal Freight Demand Is Building

Seasonal demand is now adding momentum to the tightening cycle. Produce season is ramping up, construction activity is increasing, beverage shipments are growing, and home improvement freight is returning as weather improves.

These seasonal patterns are normal. What is different this year is that they are hitting a much leaner truckload market. The industry has already gone through extended carrier attrition, weak profitability, and cautious fleet expansion. That means even modest seasonal demand can now create an outsized pricing response.

For many shippers, this could translate into earlier-than-expected transportation cost increases during the spring and summer shipping season.

West Coast Imports Could Tighten Inland Freight Markets Further

Another important factor is the West Coast import rebound. As inbound container volumes recover, Southern California and other major port markets are likely to pull more trucking capacity toward long-haul outbound freight.

That matters because carriers naturally chase longer, more profitable hauls. As trucks reposition westward for port-related freight, inland markets in the Midwest and Southeast can tighten further. This creates a cascading effect across the domestic transportation network.

For shippers managing import freight, drayage, transloading, or inland truckload distribution, West Coast conditions could become a major pricing driver in the weeks ahead.

Intermodal Transportation Is Becoming More Attractive Again

As truckload rates rise, intermodal shipping becomes more attractive for many customers looking to control transportation costs. Freight that can tolerate slightly longer transit times may be a strong candidate for conversion from highway to rail.

This is one of the clearest opportunities in the current market. However, cost savings alone will not determine adoption. Service reliability remains critical, especially for shippers that still remember pandemic-era rail congestion and inconsistent performance.

A well-executed intermodal strategy can create savings and reduce dependence on a tightening truckload market, but only if network design, service expectations, and execution are aligned.

Canada’s Trucking Market Is Also Facing Structural Pressure

Canada is dealing with its own freight market disruption. The government is increasing scrutiny around driver classification, tax compliance, safety training, and labor practices commonly grouped under the label Driver Inc.

If enforcement becomes meaningful and sustained, some of the lowest-cost truck capacity in Canada could disappear or become more expensive. That would likely push transportation rates higher for Canadian shippers and affect cross-border freight flows as well.

For companies with freight exposure in both the U.S. and Canada, this is not a localized issue. It is part of a broader North American capacity reset.

What Shippers Should Do Now

The market is not in crisis, but it is clearly changing. Shippers should not assume that the favorable truckload conditions of the past two years will continue.

This is the time to:

• review routing guide performance,
• evaluate truckload and intermodal options,
• reassess transportation budgets,
• monitor compliance-driven capacity risk,
• and prepare for continued rate pressure in key domestic and cross-border lanes.

The companies that act early will have more options than those that wait for the market to force change on them.

At PNG Worldwide, we are actively monitoring truckload capacity, drayage conditions, intermodal opportunities, diesel cost trends, and regulatory developments across North America. Our team is working with customers to identify risk, manage transportation costs, and adjust freight strategies as conditions evolve.

This market requires attention, speed, and flexibility. Customers that plan ahead, diversify modal options, and stay close to execution will be in a stronger position as freight conditions continue to tighten.

If your business is reviewing truckload strategy, intermodal conversion opportunities, drayage exposure, or cross-border transportation planning, PNG Worldwide is ready to help.

View All News Articles