U.S. Truckload Spot Rates Surge in Early December as Weather and Capacity Constraints Collide

U.S. truckload spot rates have moved sharply higher entering December, driven by a convergence of winter weather disruption, a compressed holiday retail calendar, and tighter-than-expected capacity across the transportation network. Market data analyzed by PNG Logistics Co. indicates that the early-December surge is materially stronger than typical seasonal behavior and represents the most pronounced rate acceleration for this period in more than five years.

During the first week of December, spot rates across the 50 largest U.S. freight lanes rose by an average of 4 percent. While December traditionally brings upward pricing pressure, this year’s increase stands out both in speed and magnitude. Between 2020 and 2024, early-December dry van spot rates were generally flat or increased by approximately 1 percent. The current move significantly exceeds that historical range and highlights how sensitive the market has become to even moderate disruptions.

Despite the strength of the increase, carriers broadly continue to view the rally as seasonal rather than structural. However, from the PNG Logistics Co. perspective, the distinction between seasonal tightening and structural shift is narrower than in prior years. The truckload market has entered a phase where normal seasonal forces are amplified by underlying capacity constraints, resulting in sharper price movements and slower normalization once disruptions occur.

Over the past six weeks, spot rates have cumulatively increased roughly 8 percent above long-term average sequential changes. Tender rejection rates have climbed modestly to approximately 7 percent, returning to levels seen earlier in the year and broadly consistent with pre-pandemic December conditions. These indicators point to tightening but not a full-blown capacity crisis. Still, the market is operating with little slack, meaning small shocks can quickly produce outsized pricing responses.

Winter weather has been the most immediate catalyst behind the recent surge. Sustained cold temperatures and heavy snowfall across the Midwest and Northeast have slowed transit times, reduced driver productivity, and temporarily sidelined equipment. Snow and ice force drivers to operate at reduced speeds or halt movement altogether, directly limiting the number of miles and loads that can be completed within a given week.

Even when equipment remains operational, fewer turns per driver translate into reduced effective capacity. Recent storm activity resulted in temporary closures along major freight corridors, including key stretches of Interstate highways in the Midwest and Pennsylvania. These closures created cascading network disruptions, as drivers and equipment were displaced from their planned routes and schedules.

Regional impacts have been significant. In Wisconsin, dry van spot rates jumped nearly 19 cents per mile in a single week following severe cold and snowfall. Across the broader Midwest, spot rates increased approximately 23 percent week over week, a sharp departure from typical post-Thanksgiving behavior. With additional winter systems forecast for the same regions, PNG Logistics Co. expects weather-driven capacity pressure to persist through mid-December and potentially into the holiday period.

Weather alone does not explain the magnitude of the current rate movement. The structure of the 2025 holiday calendar has intensified freight demand. Thanksgiving occurred near the latest possible date for the second consecutive year, compressing the window between Black Friday and Christmas. This shortened retail season leaves less time for inventory replenishment, particularly for e-commerce and omnichannel retailers.

As replenishment windows shrink, freight demand becomes more urgent and less flexible. Shippers are forced to move goods faster and with less lead time, increasing reliance on the spot market when contracted capacity is insufficient or unavailable. High-volume distribution lanes in the Northeast and Midwest illustrate this dynamic clearly, with some lanes experiencing rate increases of up to 30 cents per mile in a single week.

Movements between major Midwest distribution hubs saw sustained increases of 10 to 15 cents per mile in both directions. Short-haul lanes of approximately 300 miles have been especially active, as these routes allow drivers to complete same-day out-and-back trips. During peak periods, these lanes become highly competitive, and pricing responds rapidly when demand concentrates.

States with dense warehouse and distribution infrastructure have seen some of the sharpest increases. Spot rates climbed more than 20 cents per mile in Maryland and approximately 14 cents per mile in New Jersey over the same period. These increases reflect both elevated demand and the premium placed on reliable capacity in time-sensitive lanes.

One of the clearest indicators of current market tightness is the load-to-truck ratio. For the week ending December 6, the ratio reached 9.9 loads per truck, the highest level observed during the current truckload downcycle. This exceeds levels recorded earlier in the year that were driven by holiday disruptions, year-end carrier exits, and more severe weather.

From the PNG Logistics Co. standpoint, this reflects a market with diminished ability to absorb demand surges. Cumulative carrier attrition has reduced overall capacity, and increased enforcement scrutiny related to commercial driver’s license eligibility has further constrained the effective supply of drivers. These enforcement trends are expected to remain in place through 2026, limiting near-term capacity recovery even if demand softens temporarily.

As Christmas approaches, some days will show lower load-to-truck ratios. This should not be interpreted as improved capacity conditions. During the holiday period, both load postings and truck postings decline sharply. The ratio may fall simply because fewer participants are active, not because trucks are more readily available. In practice, securing capacity often becomes more difficult during this period.

Given the seasonal reduction in available drivers between Christmas and New Year’s, PNG Logistics Co. expects spot pricing to remain elevated through the holiday period. Shippers that can reschedule pickups, extend lead times, or avoid last-minute freight will be better positioned to manage costs and service disruptions.

Looking ahead, PNG Logistics Co. has increased its 2026 U.S. dry van truckload forecast to approximately 6 percent year-over-year growth. This revision is driven primarily by supply-side constraints rather than a meaningful acceleration in end-market demand. Capacity is tighter than anticipated post-Thanksgiving, and year-end rate increases are likely to establish a higher baseline entering 2026.

While some seasonal softening is still expected after the holidays, the market floor appears firmer than in recent cycles. For refrigerated freight, the 2026 forecast has been increased to approximately 5 percent year-over-year growth. Seasonal produce movement from the Southeast is contributing incremental volume, but weather remains the dominant risk factor, particularly for temperature-sensitive freight during winter storms.

The contract market remains relatively stable, though subtle stress signals are emerging. Route guide depth has remained historically low for nearly two years, indicating strong tender acceptance overall. However, longer-haul freight has shown measurable deterioration, while shorter-haul lanes have weakened slightly on a year-over-year basis. Performance remains within a narrow range, suggesting the system is functional but vulnerable to disruption.

Regional market conditions continue to follow seasonal patterns. On the East Coast, capacity tightens briefly during storm events but generally remains manageable. In the Central United States, capacity is available, though pricing remains elevated, particularly for same-day and weather-impacted freight. On the West Coast, capacity has been steady, but pricing has firmed, especially for urgent and temperature-controlled shipments.

Flatbed demand remains constrained by subdued residential construction activity. While housing indicators have improved modestly, activity remains well below neutral levels and significantly lower than year-ago benchmarks. Flatbed spot rates stabilized in October after several months of decline, followed by a brief spike in late November. As winter advances, capacity is tightening in northern and mountainous regions as carriers avoid snow and ice exposure. These pressures are regional and seasonal rather than structural.

Carrier sentiment reflects continued caution. Demand remains inconsistent, and many carriers believe meaningful recovery will require additional capacity to exit the market. Bid activity has increased compared with last year, with most shippers settling into moderate and rational rate adjustments. Rising operating costs continue to drive a strong focus on efficiency, yield discipline, and cost control. Fleet expansion is not a priority, and while some carriers continue to replace aging equipment, others are delaying purchases due to high capital costs and economic uncertainty.

For shippers, the implications are clear. This market rewards preparation and penalizes delay. Heavy reliance on spot capacity during peak periods will continue to expose shippers to volatility and higher costs. Flexibility in pickup windows, realistic lead times, and strong carrier relationships are essential risk mitigators. For contract freight, early engagement and proactive capacity planning offer meaningful advantages, particularly as some shippers move freight outside traditional bid cycles to reduce exposure.

The early December surge in U.S. truckload spot rates reflects a market with limited shock absorption. Weather, calendar compression, regulatory enforcement, and cumulative carrier exits have combined to produce one of the strongest early-December pricing environments in recent memory. While the current surge remains seasonal in nature, it is occurring on a structurally tighter base, and its effects will extend into 2026.

The takeaway from PNG Logistics Co. is straightforward. Capacity is no longer abundant, volatility is now the baseline, and disciplined planning is the difference between control and cost escalation. Shippers that act early will navigate this environment successfully. Those that wait will pay for it.

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