Tariffs Drive Sharp Slowdown in U.S. Import Volumes

U.S. retailers are issuing a stark warning: import cargo volumes at the nation’s container ports are on track to contract steadily through the end of 2025, as rising tariffs and persistent trade policy uncertainty weigh heavily on the flow of goods. The latest data from the National Retail Federation’s (NRF) Global Port Tracker shows how a summer peak, bolstered by frontloading of goods, will soon give way to a sharp slowdown that reflects the fragility of global trade in the face of unpredictable tariff policies.

In July, major U.S. container ports handled 2.36 million twenty-foot equivalent units (TEUs), a striking 20.1% increase from June and 1.8% above the prior year’s level. That made July 2025 the second-busiest month on record, surpassed only by May 2022’s 2.4 million TEUs. The surge reflected an aggressive move by retailers to stock up on goods before tariff hikes were scheduled to take effect in August. Companies across sectors, anticipating higher duties, rushed to bring in as much inventory as possible in advance.

But while July’s peak highlighted the resilience of U.S. importers in adapting to shifting trade dynamics, industry leaders caution that the volume spike is short-lived. “Retailers have stocked up as much as they can ahead of tariff increases, but the uncertainty of U.S. trade policy is making it impossible to make the long-term plans that are critical to future business success,” NRF Vice President for Supply Chain and Customs Policy Jonathan Gold said. According to Gold, the widespread application of reciprocal tariffs, now well above the earlier 10% baseline, has introduced instability that is cascading through the entire supply chain. What began as targeted tariffs has spread across industries, complicating everything from sourcing to shipping schedules.

The costs, retailers emphasize, will not remain confined to their balance sheets. Supply chain disruptions and higher tariffs are raising the price of imported goods, and those increases will inevitably be passed on to American consumers. Inflationary pressure tied to tariffs has already surfaced in key product categories, and additional duties threaten to amplify this effect just as households are grappling with a fragile economy.

The legal backdrop is equally turbulent. In August, a federal appeals court ruled that the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) does not grant authority to impose tariffs, effectively challenging the legal foundation of many of President Donald Trump’s measures. Yet the tariffs remain in place pending a Supreme Court review, leaving businesses in limbo. Compounding the uncertainty, the administration extended by 90 days—until November 10—the deadline for higher tariffs on Chinese goods, even as India was hit with an additional 25% tariff that raised its overall rate to 50%. Importers now face an environment where tariff deadlines shift suddenly, court rulings sow confusion, and policy direction remains unpredictable.

This volatile mix has translated into sharp revisions in trade forecasts. The NRF projects August volume at 2.28 million TEUs, down 1.7% year-over-year but slightly above pre-tariff estimates. From there, the picture deteriorates. September is forecast at 2.12 million TEUs, a 6.8% decline. October drops further to 1.95 million, off 13.2%. November plunges to 1.74 million, nearly 20% lower than the previous year. December, traditionally a crucial month for retailers, is expected at just 1.7 million TEUs, down 20.1% and the weakest since March 2023’s 1.62 million TEUs.

Year-to-date data through June showed 12.53 million TEUs handled, up 3.6% from the same period last year. But the full-year projection of 24.7 million TEUs represents a 3.4% decline from 2024’s 25.5 million TEUs. That trajectory suggests that while early-year momentum was positive, the back half of 2025 will be defined by contraction.

Several structural factors amplify this downturn. Last year’s East Coast dockworker unrest triggered heavy frontloading, distorting seasonal patterns and pulling volume forward into earlier months. This year, similar behavior was observed as companies imported aggressively in July ahead of tariff deadlines, leaving fewer shipments for later months. Such distortions complicate forecasting, making it difficult for ports and logistics providers to align resources with actual demand.

Looking further ahead, the outlook remains subdued. The NRF projects January 2026 imports at 1.8 million TEUs, a 19.1% drop from the same month a year earlier. The projection underscores how tariffs, frontloading, and sourcing shifts are likely to weigh on volumes well into next year. Even with a strong summer peak in 2025, annual volumes are expected to fall 3.4%, and early 2026 is shaping up as another period of weakness.

The broader consequences extend beyond port statistics. A slowdown in cargo volumes affects trucking firms, railroads, and warehouse operators that rely on steady import flows. It also threatens to ripple into consumer prices, as retailers adjust margins to account for rising costs. Sourcing strategies may evolve further, with companies accelerating efforts to diversify supply chains away from high-tariff markets, though such shifts require time, investment, and new infrastructure.

For policymakers, the challenge is stark. Retailers argue that shifting tariffs without clear long-term strategy undermines the very planning cycles that keep goods flowing efficiently. Businesses are calling for stability, not constant recalibration of trade rules. Without predictable policy, companies are left making short-term decisions—stocking up ahead of deadlines, rerouting supply chains, or cutting back on orders altogether. This reactive posture is costly, inefficient, and unsustainable.

At a time when consumer spending remains cautious, the risk is that tariff-driven disruptions add unnecessary weight to an already fragile economy. The NRF’s projections illustrate the scale of the slowdown ahead: steep year-over-year declines across the final months of 2025, an overall annual contraction, and a weak start to 2026. While July’s surge highlighted the resilience and adaptability of U.S. retailers, the months ahead reveal just how vulnerable trade flows are to policy uncertainty and tariff escalation.

In sum, the message from the nation’s retailers is direct: rising tariffs are inflating costs, warping seasonal trade flows, and undermining the ability to plan for the future. With volumes set to slide through the rest of 2025 and into 2026, the industry is bracing for a protracted slowdown that reflects not just economic fundamentals but also the unpredictability of U.S. trade policy. For consumers, the outcome is equally clear: higher prices and reduced choice at a time when the economy can least afford additional shocks.