Tariffs and Turbulence Reshape U.S. Trade

Containerized imports through American ports are facing a turning point not seen in more than six decades of modern container shipping. Analysts now warn that inbound flows are about to record an unprecedented decline, driven largely by tariffs tied to the ongoing trade tensions between Washington and Beijing. The strain on the trans-Pacific trade lane has been amplified by frontloading, inflation, and broader uncertainty in global supply chains. For importers and exporters who have relied for decades on steady growth in containerized freight, the shift underscores the need for more agile logistics partners who can manage risk, interpret rapidly changing tariff structures, and still extract meaningful efficiencies from complex shipping environments. That is where PNG Worldwide has established itself as a dependable partner, providing both capacity solutions and cost savings across ocean, air, and customs brokerage services.

Recent data from John McCown, a respected industry analyst, highlights that U.S. import volumes, which grew by more than 15% in 2024, are now on pace to show a year-on-year decline in 2025. The National Retail Federation’s forecast points to a 3.4% drop in annual volumes, which implies a nearly 16% plunge in the final four months of this year compared with last. In August, imports through the top ten U.S. ports barely held steady, finishing 0.1% above 2024, even after retailers rushed to get goods in before a renewed tariff deadline. The Port of Los Angeles expects inbound flows to fall 10% in September alone. Bookings from China, still the dominant trade partner with the U.S. despite losing share, were down more than 25% year-over-year in the first week of September. For shippers, the message is clear: the reliable growth pattern of the past has been broken, and volatility is now embedded in the system.

Amid this turbulence, PNG Worldwide is positioned to help customers navigate the uncertainty. The company has long specialized in ocean services, offering both full container load and less than container load solutions. Full container load shipments are structured for customers with steady or high-volume demand, giving them a dedicated container that moves seamlessly from origin to destination. In volatile times, PNG Worldwide is able to leverage its carrier relationships and purchasing power to secure space commitments even when blank sailings and capacity cuts disrupt traditional schedules. This capacity assurance can mean the difference between keeping store shelves stocked or facing costly delays. Less than container load services, on the other hand, are designed for flexibility. Customers without enough volume to fill a container can still benefit from international service, consolidating freight alongside others to minimize costs. With tariffs changing mid-season and purchase orders fluctuating with consumer sentiment, the ability to ship smaller, consolidated volumes becomes more important than ever. PNG Worldwide manages these consolidations with precision, ensuring visibility across multiple carriers and routings so customers can balance cost and transit time.

The airfreight market is equally unsettled, with economic headwinds and shifting consumer demand cutting into premium cargo bookings. Yet when capacity tightens and products absolutely must move, PNG Worldwide offers air services that connect major global gateways with speed and efficiency. Whether it is a time-sensitive component required on a production line or high-value consumer electronics destined for peak-season shelves, air service provides the velocity ocean sometimes cannot. PNG Worldwide integrates these air solutions into broader supply chain strategies, often combining air and ocean within the same program to strike the right balance of speed and cost. That level of multimodal flexibility provides shippers with an important hedge against the unpredictable swings in market conditions.

The tariffs themselves are the core challenge in today’s environment. President Trump’s latest 90-day pause extended the uncertainty into November, but every new announcement triggers reactive buying patterns from importers who try to frontload cargo before rates rise again. This leads to artificial peaks followed by deep troughs, leaving carriers with whiplash capacity problems and shippers with inconsistent landed costs. PNG Worldwide has invested in customs services that go well beyond simple clearance. Its customs team works directly with customers to interpret tariffs, ensuring they understand the classification of their goods and the potential financial exposure attached to each shipment. By analyzing tariff schedules and offering product-specific guidance, PNG Worldwide can identify opportunities for reclassification or alternative sourcing that minimize the impact of duties. That consultative approach transforms customs from a compliance exercise into a strategic advantage, particularly as retaliatory tariffs from China create two-way uncertainty.

Savings are a central part of PNG Worldwide’s value proposition. In an era where rates are falling sharply on some trade lanes—spot quotes from India to the U.S. East Coast dropped $400 to $600 per container in September alone—many shippers might assume cost savings are automatic. Yet the reality is that falling rates are offset by new surcharges, by volatility that forces some companies onto higher-priced routings, and by inefficiencies tied to delayed cargo. PNG Worldwide helps customers achieve true savings by analyzing lane performance, negotiating the best rates in line with actual market conditions, and ensuring that customers pay only for the services they need. For a retailer importing mixed loads from Asia, less than container load consolidation might reduce overall logistics spend by as much as 25% compared with inconsistent full container bookings. For an industrial importer sourcing components from multiple suppliers, a multimodal program that uses both air and ocean may reduce inventory carrying costs by weeks, translating to measurable financial savings. Even in customs, proper tariff interpretation can yield substantial benefits by preventing overpayment and avoiding penalties.

The global shipping landscape is not simply about price. Capacity is also at stake. Despite softening demand, the global orderbook for container ships remains at historic highs, with nearly 30% of the world fleet under construction. More than a million TEUs of capacity are scheduled to enter service before the year’s end. Scrapping is virtually nonexistent, meaning carriers will need to deploy that tonnage even if demand remains weak. On the Asia-Europe trade, where carriers need more than 450 vessels to maintain weekly services, shortages persist even as rates collapse by double digits. That paradox of surplus newbuilds alongside operational shortfalls demonstrates why shippers need partners like PNG Worldwide who understand the dynamics and can identify which services are sustainable and which may expose customers to mid-season disruption.

The market’s forward view is sobering. Analysts at J.P. Morgan and HSBC warn that a fourth-quarter demand shock in the U.S. could push the industry into steep losses. Rates on the Asia-U.S. West Coast already tumbled 20% in a single week in September, while east coast rates lost nearly 10%. Industry experts believe rates may continue to erode until December, when pre-Chinese New Year demand could briefly restore balance. PNG Worldwide does not wait for such rebounds to serve its customers. Instead, the company builds programs that are resilient in both high and low markets, using its scale to lock in predictable pricing where needed and using its flexibility to shift routings when advantageous. For customers, that stability is more valuable than chasing momentary price swings.

There is also a broader reality: the U.S. is becoming a relatively smaller player in global container trade. While exports from the Far East surged to record highs, the U.S. lanes have declined. China’s share of inbound U.S. containers has already dropped from 40% at its peak to under 30% today. That shift means supply chains are diversifying, and U.S. importers must adapt sourcing strategies across India, Southeast Asia, and beyond. PNG Worldwide supports that diversification with robust networks in Asia, Europe, and emerging markets, ensuring customers can pivot sourcing without losing service reliability. Its less than container load programs are particularly well suited for testing new sourcing locations, as customers can begin importing small volumes without committing to full container contracts.

For U.S. exporters, the environment is equally challenging. Backhaul volumes to China are down nearly 20% despite tariff pauses. Agricultural and manufacturing exporters must deal with inconsistent carrier commitments and limited vessel space. PNG Worldwide’s full container services provide those exporters with the assurance that their products will reach overseas markets on schedule, while its customs and compliance team helps navigate the complex rules that apply when tariffs are introduced or lifted on short notice. By maintaining close relationships with carriers and monitoring blank sailing schedules, PNG Worldwide ensures that even low-density backhaul cargo finds its way onto ships without costly rollovers.

Ultimately, what shippers need most in this environment is guidance. The chaotic stop-start cycle of tariff pauses, retaliatory measures, frontloading, and capacity swings leaves even the most experienced importers uncertain about next steps. PNG Worldwide provides that guidance not only through freight services but also through tariff interpretation and customs advisory. The company’s experts explain what each new tariff announcement means in practice, translate regulatory language into actionable advice, and recommend strategies that protect margins. In some cases, that might mean advising a customer to accelerate shipments before a new duty takes effect; in others, it may mean shifting to a less obvious routing that avoids congestion. The underlying principle is always the same: protect the customer’s bottom line while maintaining compliance.

The story of global trade in 2025 is one of turbulence and recalibration. Containerized imports into the U.S. are set to decline in a way rarely seen outside global crises. Rates are falling across major trade lanes, carriers are scrambling to balance bloated orderbooks against soft demand, and tariffs continue to unsettle the largest bilateral trade relationship in the world. In this landscape, PNG Worldwide emerges as a stabilizing force. With its full container load and less than container load ocean solutions, its integrated air freight services, its sophisticated customs operations, and its tariff interpretation capabilities, the company offers shippers both flexibility and savings. It helps them reduce logistics spend, mitigate the risk of penalties, and ensure timely delivery of goods even as the industry faces disruption. The future of freight may be uncertain, but with the right logistics partner, customers can still find certainty where it matters most—predictable service, reduced costs, and a clear path forward in global trade.