Shipping Rates Surge Amid Pre-Lunar New Year Rush

US retailers will begin the new year paying spot rates not seen since the peak shipping season in August as the eastbound trans-Pacific market strengthens amid the pre-Lunar New Year rush. Following a significant spot rate increase of almost $1,000 per FEU on December 15, trans-Pacific carriers are pushing for another increase on January 1. If successful, rates to the West Coast could reach approximately $6,000 per FEU, while rates to the East Coast may approach $7,000 per FEU.

The Lunar New Year, beginning on January 29, has prompted US importers to expedite shipments before Asian factories shut down for the holiday, which typically lasts about two weeks. Over the weekend, several carriers notified customers of the planned January 1 general rate increase (GRI), with more expected to announce by midweek. According to Christian Sur, executive vice president of ocean freight contract logistics at Unique Logistics International, demand remains strong, and carriers are optimistic about rate increases holding.

Retailers have projected a robust January for imports, bolstered by the Lunar New Year cargo rush. The Global Port Tracker forecasts a 12% increase in US imports compared to January 2024. Spot rates have risen sharply over the past month, with West Coast rates up 70% and East Coast rates up 35%, reflecting the urgency of pre-holiday shipments. Although earlier concerns about a potential second strike by East and Gulf Coast dockworkers and incoming tariffs under President-elect Donald Trump had fueled market activity, these factors now appear secondary to the Lunar New Year-driven demand.

Forwarders note that while ad hoc “bullet” rates have largely disappeared, carriers are honoring commitments under fixed-rate allocations, although customers exceeding their minimum quantity commitments must pay spot or freight-all-kinds (FAK) rates. Some carriers are proposing an additional GRI for January 15, but the likelihood of its success before the Lunar New Year lull remains uncertain.

Looking at the broader trans-Atlantic market, the trade rebounded significantly in 2024 after a steep decline in 2023. Despite year-over-year growth in containerized imports from North Europe and the Mediterranean, excess capacity initially suppressed rate increases. However, carriers responded by reducing capacity and shifting vessels to more lucrative Asian trades, lifting rates in the latter half of the year. By early October 2024, trans-Atlantic rates peaked at approximately $2,700 per FEU before stabilizing at $2,200 per FEU by mid-November.

As 2025 approaches, the trans-Atlantic market appears balanced, though potential tariffs and labor actions could disrupt this stability. With limited ability for US importers to frontload industrial goods, capacity constraints during disruptions would likely drive rate increases and extend transit times.

PNG Worldwide plays a critical role in supporting customers navigating these dynamic market conditions. Specializing in container imports, particularly from Asia, PNG Worldwide offers comprehensive logistics solutions tailored to meet the challenges of evolving shipping rates and capacity constraints. By leveraging advanced TMS systems and a customer-centric approach, PNG Worldwide ensures efficient and reliable transportation services for businesses worldwide.